Surf Forecast 16

Detailed: mid Monday on southern shores has high surf from 185-200 degrees at 14-18 seconds. It was generated by severe gales SE of New Zealand a week ago. This episode is expected to peak on Monday and slowly drop into Tuesday from 180-200 degrees.

A series of extratropical cyclones SE to E of New Zealand over the past week have created back-to-back episodes that should keep most days above average into next week.

An exceptionally broad system tracked SE of New Zealand last Tuesday. Seas were primarily aimed at targets just east of Hawaii. However, the wider than normal fetch would allow swell height to dissipate slower, and angular spreading should bring ample surf to Hawaii. The spreading will give the local incident direction centered on 185 degrees. Long period forerunners of 18-22 seconds are expected late Tuesday. The episode should peak on Wednesday in the high surf bracket, then slowly decline to moderate levels by late Thursday, and small to moderate for Friday, still from 170-190 degrees.

Another low pressure had an accompanying cold front push equatorward just east of New Zealand last Friday into Saturday. Gales to severe gales in the 185-200 degree band should make for a moderate to near high episode, building Friday night into Saturday.

Mid Monday on northern shores has tiny surf from 290-345 degrees. Weak low pressure systems in the north central Pacific over the past week and into this week should give some days with similar conditions, mixed with flat days.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has mostly small breakers from 70-90 degrees. Trades are expected to slowly decline into Tuesday along with the windswell. See the latest NWS state weather forecast discussion for an explanation. Moderate trades building later in the week should have windswell back to small levels for the weekend.

Into the long range, more high surf from southern hemisphere sources is expected. The system east of New Zealand strengthened on Sunday as it tracked east, with storm-force winds setting up in the 170-190 degree band in an area about 3500 nm south of Hawaii. This should bring in another high surf episode starting next Sunday into Monday. Further east over the past 36 hours, a storm-force system south of Easter Island is aiming swell towards Hawaii. Surf from this source should arrive next Monday, June 15, overlapping with the other source, to potentially keep high surf another day or so from 145-160 degrees.

In the northern hemisphere, no surf beyond small is expected. Seasonally typical moderate trades on the large scale, with the typical stronger breezes during certain times of the day at select locations. Long range forecasts are subject to rapid rewinding.

This collaborative forecast will resume on June 23.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.