Surf Forecast 19

DailyStoke.com: Wave forecasting sites have been taken to task most recently for the “Overhyped Swell of January 2009.” At the same time, Justin Cote at Transworld wrote to regular surfers saying, “C’mon, figure it out for yourself.” More broadly, surf forecasting anywhere, let alone in SoCal, is a lot of pressure. Do you take it personally?

Socalsurf.com: I don’t know about being “taken to task” by anyone…forecast sites always get a good shellacking when the swell doesn’t produce quality surf…and I know that people feel even more burned when they are paying for a forecast and it is wrong. The angst that people pass on isn’t anything new…though it is easier for people to voice it now days.

I personally know most of the professional surf forecasters out there working right now and I think it is safe to say that they aren’t trying to hype up the forecast to drive page views…that isn’t to say that some executives or marketing hacks aren’t trying to spin or hype it in a way to try and make more money (those guys are definitely out there) but I think that is a bad way to go…eventually you call wolf enough times and people stop listening to you.

Usually, I think that people just get excited when there is surf coming, particularly when it has been small and shitty for a while, and if a forecaster isn’t careful they can start the hype machine chugging along.

As for the swell in January I was probably one of the most conservative forecasters on that swell and even I overcalled it by a foot or two. (my forecasts are archived on the blog…you can actually read my initial forecast and my adjusted update…both of which were pretty close but a little overcalled).

Archived January Forecast

Archived January Forecast - the update

I don’t take the criticism personally…but I do get a little bent when my forecasts are off. I surf too…so I truly am looking at the forecasts I write as a way for me to get waves. If I think it is going to overhead I am down at the beach with you guys…and when the swell doesn’t produce I am bummed as well. I don’t let it get to me that much…usually I swear and throw rocks at the ocean for a while then I try and take what I learn and help to make the forecasts better.

Justin @ Transworld’s article was a bit silly…I admire the “do it yourself” angle to it, and he is right there is a grip of information out there…but JUST using the buoys isn’t that great of advice. The buoys are a good way to verify the long-range forecast as a swell moves closer to actually hitting the beach, but it doesn’t really give you much warning on incoming swells. From a long-range perspective you would only get 1-2 days worth of notice on particular North Pacific swells…you wouldn’t see local windswells, Southern Hemi swells of Hurricane swells at all before they hit. My advice would be to gather as much data as you have time too…and find a forecast site that you trust…that way you can compare the two and make informed decisions.

Adam Wright runs www.socalsurf.com and is a professional
meteorologist. He’s been a surf forecaster since 1999, and covers SoCal and Baja for Wavewatch.com as well as the weekly snow and surf outlooks for Fuel.tv. DailyStoke happens to think there is no better resource online to understanding waves, in plain English, than
Socalsurf.com. Learn more there, now!