Surf Forecast 28

Surf Forecast, Monday 08 June 2009

Summary: Very small or flat in the north, bigger in the south, but very lumpy.

Best bet for the next 3 days: Southern Portugal.

General synopsis:

Today’s chart is still ‘upside down’ with relatively high pressure in the north and low pressure in the south. However, things are a little more hopeful than the past week or so, particularly for the far south and some southwest-facing spots in other areas. This is due to a moderate westerly fetch on the southern flank of a small low-pressure system centred just northwest of the Azores, which is generating some west and southwest swell. There is another, weaker system in the Bay of Biscay, producing easterly winds in northern and mid areas and westerlies in the south.

Outlook:

Over the next few days, the high pressure that is covering Iceland at the moment will persist, with a band of low pressure sandwiched between here and a very southward-situated Azores high. The low-pressure system just northwest of the Azores at the moment will move eastwards and maintain its strength tomorrow, ending up in the Bay of Biscay by early Wednesday and dissipating by Thursday. Another, weaker system then follows on behind. The fetch on the southern flank of the first system will produce some quite big but unruly surf for Portugal and a west or southwest flow over the Iberian Peninsula. Winds over mid and northern areas will be from an easterly quarter as that system tracks to the south.

On the east coasts of Scotland and England, some very short-period windsea from the northeast, probably slightly larger and cleaner on Wednesday, but still pretty marginal. Winds will be light to moderate north or northeast throughout.

In northern Scotland, very small or flat, with perhaps some short-period windsea arriving from the north on Thursday. Winds will be from the north, light tomorrow and Wednesday, becoming moderate on Thursday.

In western Scotland and Northern Ireland, continuing very small or flat throughout, with light east or northeast winds, perhaps moderate for a time on Wednesday.

In western and southern Ireland, expect very small or flat surf until Thursday when some small beachbreak-sized swell hits from the southwest. Winds will be light to moderate east or northeast.

In Wales and Cornwall, very small or flat tomorrow and Wednesday, before a swell arrives from the southwest on Thursday, although this will only be felt on south or southwest-facing coasts. Winds will be light to moderate easterlies at first, veering south on Wednesday and then west on Thursday.

Along the south coast of England, mostly flat tomorrow and Wednesday, but Thursday sees some relatively longer-period swell arriving from the Atlantic, principally affecting southwest-facing spots in the west. Winds will be mostly light and variable.

In northwest France, some average to poor-quality southwest swell arrives tomorrow and continues into Wednesday, accompanied by moderate southwest winds. Late Wednesday and through Thursday wave heights increase but winds also increase from the southwest, fresh or strong.

In southwest France, a pulse of peaky, average-quality swell from the west arrives tomorrow and then fades off through Wednesday, before picking up again Thursday. Winds will be light westerlies tomorrow, light and variable on Wednesday and light northwest on Thursday.

In northern Spain, wave heights will increase tomorrow, decrease for a while on Wednesday and then increase again on Thursday. The swell is from the west so it will struggle to get into north-facing beaches. Winds will be light to moderate south or southwest tomorrow and Wednesday, light westerlies on Thursday.

In Portugal expect some quite large surf tomorrow, which loses size and quality on Wednesday before increasing again on Thursday. Winds will be light to moderate south or southwest tomorrow and Wednesday, veering north on Thursday.

Long-term prospects:

The upper airstream remains very weak and broken-up until at least next weekend, meaning not much action on the surface apart from perhaps the odd cut-off low developing north of the Azores. Early next week the upper flow is forecast to amalgamate into a slightly stronger pattern, which could mean an increase in activity on the surface.