Surf Forecast 97

...High surf advisory for south facing shores...

Surf along south facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet with sets to 10
feet possible through Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight then
increase to 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet with locally
higher sets through Thursday.

Surf along north facing shores will be flat to 1 foot through
Thursday.

Outlook through Tuesday Jun 16:
surf will remain at or above the advisory level of 8 feet along
south facing shores through Thursday night. Top reefs focusing the
swell best will pull in sets reaching near double overhead through
early Thursday. The swell will then begin to slowly back down.
Steady southern hemisphere storm activity will keep surf around
chest to overhead through at least the middle of next week. West and
east facing shores can expect smaller amounts of south swell wrap.
North facing shores...flat.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The
surf forecast is based on the significant wave height in the zone of
maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the
significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near
any surf zone.

&&

Collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast for Oahu
NWS/ncddc Honolulu HI
300 PM HST Mon Jun 8 2009

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at
300 PM when pat Caldwell is available. When pat Caldwell is not
available...the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for
4 days.

Forecast swl dmnt dmnt h h hgt wind wind spd
date hgt dir pd 1/3 1/10 tend prob spd dir tend

1 PM 5 E 7 2 4 down 11-16 E down
06/08 4 SSW 17 6 10 up

Tue 3 E 6 2 2 down low 7-10 E down
06/09 3 SSW 15 4 6 down high
3 S 19 6 8 up low

Wed 4 S 18 8 10 up Med 7-10 E same
06/10

Thu 4 S 15 6 8 down Med 11-16 E up
06/11

Fri 5 E 6 2 2 up low 11-16 E same
06/12 3 S 13 4 6 down low

Sat 6 E 7 2 4 up low 11-16 E same
06/13 3 SSW 15 4 6 up low

Legend:
swl hgt open ocean swell height measured from trough to crest
in feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
dmnt dir dominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 Compass
points
dmnt pd dominant period in seconds
h1/3 significant wave height in the surf zone
h1/10 average height of the highest one-tenth waves in the surf
zone
hgt tend height tendency of swell (valid values: up/down/same)
prob probability of occurrence (valid values: high/Med/low)
wind spd open water wind speed measured in knots located
20 nautical miles offshore
wind dir wind direction in 16 Compass points
spd tend wind speed tendency (valid values: up/down/same)

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same
beach at different break areas.

Discussion:
summary...
above average southerly swell.

Detailed...
mid Monday on Southern Shores has high surf from 185-200 degrees at
14-18 seconds. It was generated by severe gales se of New Zealand a
week ago. This episode is expected to peak on Monday and slowly drop
into Tuesday from 180-200 degrees.

A series of extratropical cyclones se to E of New Zealand over the
past week have created back-to-back episodes that should keep most
days above average into next week.

An exceptionally broad system tracked se of New Zealand last
Tuesday. Seas were primarily aimed at targets just east of Hawaii.
However...the wider than normal fetch would allow swell height to
dissipate slower...and angular spreading should bring ample surf to
Hawaii. The spreading will give the local incident direction
centered on 185 degrees. Long period forerunners of 18-22 seconds
are expected late Tuesday. The episode should peak on Wednesday in
the high surf bracket...then slowly decline to moderate levels by
late Thursday...and small to moderate for Friday...still from
170-190 degrees.

Another low pressure had an accompanying cold front push equatorward
just east of New Zealand last Friday into Saturday. Gales to severe
gales in the 185-200 degree band should make for a moderate to near
high episode...building Friday night into Saturday.

Mid Monday on northern shores has tiny surf from 290-345 degrees.
Weak low pressure systems in the north central Pacific over the past
week and into this week should give some days with similar
conditions...mixed with flat days.

Mid Monday on Eastern Shores has mostly small breakers from 70-90
degrees. Trades are expected to slowly decline into Tuesday along
with the windswell. See the latest NWS state weather forecast
discussion for an explanation. Moderate trades building later in the
week should have windswell back to small levels for the weekend.

Into the long range...more high surf from southern hemisphere
sources is expected. The system east of New Zealand strengthened on
Sunday as it tracked east...with storm-force winds setting up in the
170-190 degree band in an area about 3500 nm south of Hawaii. This
should bring in another high surf episode starting next Sunday into
Monday. Further east over the past 36 hours...a storm-force system
south of Easter island is aiming swell towards Hawaii. Surf from
this source should arrive next Monday...June 15...overlapping with
the other source...to potentially keep high surf another day or so
from 145-160 degrees.

In the northern hemisphere...no surf beyond small is expected.
Seasonally typical moderate trades on the large scale...with the
typical stronger breezes during certain times of the day at select
locations. Long range forecasts are subject to rapid rewinding.

This collaborative forecast will resume on June 23.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of
NWS and ncddc. Please send suggestions to W-hfo.Webmaster@noaa.Gov
or call the warning coordination meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

Additional resources:
see /in lowercase/ http://www.Prh.NOAA.Gov/hnl/pages/marine.Php